With six months left, ominous outlook remains for Democrats – Roll Call

The lack of improvement shouldn’t be a surprise considering no president in the last 70 years has dramatically improved his job approval rating from early in a midterm year to the midterm elections, according to Gallup’s archive. 

If the White House and Democrats on Capitol Hill don’t figure out a way to either regain the confidence of independent voters about the direction of the country or discredit GOP candidates in the eyes of voters looking for change, Democrats will likely lose both chambers of Congress. 

Without a seismic political event, 2022 remains on track to be a typical midterm election that goes poorly for the president’s party. That’s roughly the same outlook as six, or even nine, months ago.

30-seat average

The president’s party has lost 30 House seats, on average, in midterm elections going back a century. Republicans may fall short of that this year considering they already won much of the low-hanging fruit in 2020, when they outperformed expectations and gained a dozen House seats. They need a net gain of just five seats for the House majority, which is more likely than regaining control of the Senate. A specific House seat projection is still difficult, however, without more district-level survey data.

Republicans need a net gain of just one seat for a Senate majority. Although that outcome is less certain than the House, it’s hard to see how Democrats replicate Biden’s coalition in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the current political environment. Biden won all of those states narrowly  in 2020 and Democrats probably need to win all of them in 2022.