POLL: DeSantis may be vulnerable on cost-of-living issues, but his culture war is working with voters

Joey Mackey voted for Ron DeSantis in 2018, but is wavering on whether to support him again.

Mackey is a 28-year-old attorney from Jacksonville who is registered as a no party affiliation voter and has supported both Republicans and Democrats, once casting a ballot for former President Barack Obama.

He believes DeSantis has done a “pretty decent job” as governor, but is concerned that not enough is being done to address the state’s growing affordability problems, which Mackey felt recently when his rent went up “substantially.”

Mackey’s views are reflected in recent polling conducted by the University of North Florida on behalf of the USA TODAY Network – Florida, which found the governor may be vulnerable on the question of whether he has adequately addressed cost-of-living concerns in a state where everything from home prices to rent, property insurance and utility rates are spiking.

However, DeSantis critics who accuse him of failing to address pocketbook issues because he is spending too much time on culture war concerns may have trouble making that argument stick, according to the poll, which found a majority of voters approve of the governor’s focus on social issues.

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Support for the governor’s anti-woke crusade is even higher among voters without a college degree and Hispanic voters.

The poll offers further evidence that the GOP’s culture battles may be shifting its appeal, pulling in more working-class voters, including Hispanics, even as some higher educated voters are turned off.

Democrats have hammered DeSantis on the affordability issue, saying he is too focused on how race, gender identity and sexual orientation are discussed in schools and not enough on helping people who are struggling financially.

At least part of that message could be effective in swaying voters.

The UNF/USA TODAY Network — Florida survey found that 50% of voters disapprove of how DeSantis has handled the growing cost-of-living problems in Florida, compared to 48% who approve.

That’s close to a “wash,” noted UNF Public Opinion Research Lab Faculty Director Michael Binder, who oversaw the poll. But digging deeper into the numbers reveals more potential vulnerability for DeSantis. 

Independents such as Mackey who are more likely to be swing voters take a dimmer view of how DeSantis has handled the state’s affordability problems, with 56% saying they disapprove.

“Can he fix it? I don’t know,” Mackey said of Florida’s rising cost of living. “The economy is such a complex thing. But can he talk about it more? For sure. It’s almost like right now he wants to pretend it’s not happening.”

Binder noted that even among Republicans, support for the governor’s approach to Florida’s affordability problem is “soft,” with only 45% saying they “strongly approve” of DeSantis’ record on this issue, compared to 81% of Republicans who strongly approve of his culture war battles.

“If you’re looking at potential chinks in an armor those are issues that could be a problem for him down the road,” Binder said, adding: “I think that’s where the action could be made.”

DeSantis is in a strong position heading into his reelection bid. He has an enormous fundraising advantage and a 50% overall approval rating according to other UNF polling. The broader political climate also plays to his advantage, with Democrats facing headwinds nationally and in Florida, which has been trending more Republican.

Florida’s affordability problem

The state’s affordability problem could be a weak spot in DeSantis’ record, though.

“Affordability in Florida is real, those problems are not made up,” Binder said. “Anybody that’s had homeowner’s insurance policies canceled over the last couple of years, or seen their rates double or triple, those are issues you can’t point to Washington D.C. about. You can’t blame Joe Biden for those things.”

Florida traditionally has been a low-cost beacon for retirees and others looking to live cheaply in a warm climate, but the state’s reputation for offering an affordable slice of paradise increasingly is being challenged. Home prices, rent and property insurance costs have all skyrocketed considerably in recent years and utility rates also are on the rise.

Mackey, who participated in the UNF/USA TODAY Network – Florida survey, agrees with the criticism levied by Democrats that the governor is too focused on culture war concerns to the detriment of other issues. He cited HB 1557, the legislation officially known as the Parental Rights in Education Act but derided by critics as the “Don’t Say Gay” law, as a “waste of time.”

The bill governs how schools approach issues of gender identity and sexual orientation in the classroom.

“I think he should stop, or cut down, on the whole culture war stuff and focus on issues that have more substance behind them, obviously the increase in prices and rent,” Mackey said.

Other independent voters who participated in the UNF/USA TODAY Network – Florida survey and subsequent interviews agree.

“It struck me as a solution in search of a problem,” said Ray Hays, 69, a Jacksonville television producer and independent voter who has backed both Republicans and Democrats, said of HB 1557.

Yet the governor’s focus on these culture clashes is popular overall, according to the poll, which may be why he has pursued them with such vigor.

DeSantis first gained national recognition during the height of the pandemic for pushing back against COVID-19 restrictions and has made that a key part of his political persona, touting the “Free State of Florida.”

DeSantis in the national spotlight

Over the last year, though, the governor largely has been in the national spotlight because of big fights over cultural issues such as HB 1557, which prompted a widely-publicized clash with Disney, and legislation such as the “Stop WOKE Act” that governs how schools and businesses handle racial issues.

DeSantis has become the chief of the woke police and one of the GOP’s most prominent culture warriors. So far it seems to be working.

While the governor may be turning off some voters such as Mackey and Hays, the UNF/USA TODAY Network – Florida survey found that 52% of Florida voters approve of the governor’s focus on culture issues — such as gender identity, sexual orientation and race — in schools and businesses and 47% disapprove.

Republicans strongly support the governor’s approach to cultural issues, while Democrats strongly oppose DeSantis. Independent voters are the difference maker, with 52% saying they favor DeSantis’ focus on these issues

Jacksonville resident Lawrence Kent, 53, is an independent voter who works in sales for a fire sprinkler system components distribution company and leans conservative, voting for former President Donald Trump and hoping he runs again.

“I would vote for Ron DeSantis ten days out of ten,” Kent said, praising the governor’s focus on social issues.

Kent said DeSantis’ approach to cultural issues surrounding race, sexual orientation and gender identity is “common sense.”

“It tells me he values the rights of the parents over the agenda of the school districts and the teachers and the teacher’s unions,” Kent said.

Blue collar voters and Hispanic voters are particularly enthusiastic about DeSantis’ focus on cultural issues. The UNF/USA TODAY Network – Florida survey found that 54% of voters without a college degree support how the governor has approached cultural issues, and 60% of Hispanic voters.

Reynaldo Cortez isn’t one of them, but he’s not surprised the many of his fellow Hispanic voters in Florida view the governor’s approach positively.

Cortez, 67, is a Miami resident who is retired from his job in transportation engineering. He originally is from New Mexico. Many of the Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County come from countries such as a Cuba and Venezuela with authoritarian socialist regimes.

“It’s all about communism and that’s where Trump hit the nail right on the head,” Cortez said of the concerns of many South Florida Hispanic voters. “And that’s where Democrats are making a huge mistake… it’s just totally pissing off at least this portion of the Hispanic population.”

Binder noted that many Hispanic voters are religious and may be conservative on social issues.

“It makes sense if you’re going to pitch your campaign on culture issues that’s an avenue into the very, very diverse Hispanic vote in Florida,” Binder said.

Cortez described himself as a moderate “Arnold Schwarzenegger Republican” and said he voted for Ronald Reagan before recently backing Democrats, including President Joe Biden.

“I’m fiscally conservative, socially pretty liberal,” he said.

Voters such as Cortez with a college degree generally view DeSantis unfavorably on both cultural and affordability issues, according to the UNF/USA TODAY Network – Florida survey.

The poll offers further evidence that the GOP’s culture battles may be shifting its appeal, pulling in more working class voters, even as some higher educated voters such as Cortez and Mackey are turned off.

Mackey still hasn’t decided how he’ll vote in November. He’s waiting to see who emerges from the Democratic primary for governor and what DeSantis has to say as Election Day approaches. He wants to see candidates addressing the state’s most pressing problems.

“Someone who, first off, acknowledges that Floridians – especially the middle class and lower middle class – are definitely struggling financially,” he said. “It’s crazy to me that I don’t feel like the state government talks about it that much.”

Follow Herald-Tribune Political Editor Zac Anderson on Twitter at @zacjanderson. He can be reached at zac.anderson@heraldtribune.com