Montana Democrats try to forge a path | 406 Politics | helenair.com

“From a political point of view, I don’t think rural people are wrong in saying Dems at the national level have abandoned rural America,” Ronning said in a recent interview. “And that makes me really angry.”

Montana Democrats have an organized presence in 35 of Montana’s 56 counties and three reservations, compared to Republicans tallying 50. Not having that local presence can mean when people think about Democrats, it’s not their friend or neighbor that comes to mind but a national figurehead frequently villainized by Republicans, someone like the Speaker of the U.S. House Nancy Pelosi.

But the lack of a structure isn’t deterring Ronning, even though her district is considered a GOP stronghold and the Cook Political Report doesn’t merit the race as competitive.

The Independent candidate in the race, Gary Buchanan, has outraised Ronning, a former Billings city councilperson and organizer against human trafficking. Republican candidate U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale’s funding has eclipsed Buchanan and Ronning combined. Last week the state’s largest union that represents a broad swath of public sector employees endorsed Buchanan over Ronning in a press release that didn’t mention the Democrat.

Democratic candidates in this midterm election are up against a slew of hurdles in addition to the candidates they’re running against — the increasing polarization and nationalization of politics and an increasing difficulty winning over rural voters.

This fall’s election will provide some insight about where Montana’s Democrats are headed and if their renewed focus on “kitchen table” issues will resonate with voters following the Republican dominance in 2020, said Jessi Bennion, a political science professor at Montana State University and Carroll College.

Even though midterms normally serve as a referendum on the party in power in Washington, D.C., — this year it’s Democrats — the state-level candidates in Montana are working to capitalize on major issues like the fall of Roe v. Wade where they see an opportunity to paint their Republican opponents as out of touch.

What’s the path?

The strategy for Montana Democrats this year is to focus on “kitchen table” issues.

That’s according to Sheila Hogan, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party. A long-time party volunteer, Hogan started her position in September 2021.

Those “kitchen table” issues include property taxes, health care, mental health, housing and childcare.

Looking at the 2020 election results, Hogan sees not a trouncing but a path forward. Though every statewide candidate the party put up lost, election data from the Secretary of State shows Democrats earned an average of 42% of the vote in the eight statewide races that year.

To Hogan, that shows the Democratic Party resonates with a bloc of voters, though not the margin needed to win an election.

“What we care about is important to a bulk of Montanans,” Hogan said. “It’s important that we represent them and that we elect people who represent them. It’s important for them to have a voice.”

Hogan said Montanans have a “loud and proud” history of independent thinking when it comes to politics. In her estimation, the state Republican convention this summer showed the GOP is moving away from that tradition. At the convention, when some urged moderation on issues, they at times were booed down. Republicans also backed a way to track and report if members vote against platform-priority bills.

“I would urge the group to … leave room for more moderate beliefs so we don’t alienate people who have different views on this topic,” said one GOP delegate, who pointed to the party’s slogan of “We’re better, together.”

‘Plan on winning it’

Monica Tranel is one of the candidates trying to capitalize on Republican priorities she said voters see as too far removed from everyday life.

“People are tired of the extremism,” said Tranel, the Democratic nominee for Montana’s newly drawn western U.S. House seat. Her opponent is Ryan Zinke, former Secretary of the Interior who served in the Trump administration.

Tranel has traveled all over the district and said she put over 1,000 miles on her minivan in six days.

Some voters she’s spoken with feel positions in the GOP platform went too far. At that convention, the party adopted a goal of a total ban on elective abortions and demanded legislators pursue election reforms rooted in false claims of voter fraud.

People want centrism, Tranel said, so that’s why her campaign focuses on Montana’s middle class and talking to voters about public lands.

In the Flathead recently, Tranel said a number of Republican voters told her she had their votes in November.

Bennion said Tranel is running a smart campaign by meeting with voters in their towns and communities to connect with them.

The Cook Political Report ranked Montana’s western congressional race “likely Republican,” and Zinke is favored to win, but in Bennion’s estimation Tranel could have a chance.

Tranel was an Olympic rower, and worked as a staff attorney for the Public Service Commission. She lost a 2020 bid for a PSC seat in the region by a margin of 4 points — closer than any statewide Democratic candidate came to winning that year. 

The western district includes Democratic strongholds in Silver Bow, Glacier and Missoula counties, along with Gallatin County, which has been more blue in recent years. And Tranel is campaigning in reliably red areas, like Flathead and Ravalli counties.

Tranel certainly isn’t writing herself off.

“I plan on winning it,” she said.

While Tranel is focusing on those “kitchen table” issues Hogan highlighted, Bennion said Republican talking points tend to nationalize the election.

“You’ll see that a lot, specifically with Zinke,” Bennion said.

The Zinke campaign did not return requests for comment, but his website lists the candidate’s major issues as the economy, healthy forests and wildfire prevention, border security, access to public lands and honoring veterans’ service. His website prominently features Trump’s endorsement.

In the east

While many political observers think part of the 2020 results in Montana were the outcome of the GOP making winning arguments about national issues, Ronning thinks she can flip that script.

The U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade this summer was a watershed moment embraced by most Republican office-holders and decried by Democrats. But it’s not entirely clear how losing a nearly 50-year federal right to access an abortion will play out with voters.

One early indication is Kansas, where last week voters in a state that hasn’t backed a Democrat for president since 1964 resoundingly rejected an amendment that said the state’s Constitution did not ensure the right to access an abortion.

Ronning said she’s heard more and more about abortion on the campaign trail since the draft court opinion overturning Roe leaked in May.

“That has been the most dramatic change I have seen,” Ronning said.

Her opponent is U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale, who holds Montana’s lone seat in the House now. He issued a statement after Roe was overturned, calling the ruling a “historic victory” and saying “certain states in the union will continue adopting radical abortion measures. Because of that, we must stand united to be a voice and advocate for all lives and do so until every unborn life in the United States is protected.”

As for Ronning’s stance, her website says “Abortion is health care and must be legally and medically accessible in every state.”

When she talks to voters about abortion, Ronning said hasn’t had anyone confront her negatively in-person, adding most people have supported abortion rights.

Rosendale did not return requests for comment for this story.

Bennion said the eastern district — which spans 41 counties from Montana’s eastern border through central Montana — presents an uphill battle for Dems.

Buchanan, the Independent candidate, also poses a challenge since he could draw votes from Ronning. Buchanan is a business owner who served “a half-dozen Republican and Democrat governors,” according to his website.

Buchanan said he thinks Montana politics are expanding, and more people are looking for options outside the two major parties.

“I think only an Independent can beat Rosendale,” Buchanan said.

He said he has a pretty conservative agenda, citing his opposition to Build Back Better, one of Biden’s priorities, and being strong on crime, thanks to his service chairing the state’s Board of Crime Control.

But Buchanan also said he’s for public lands and access to hunting, will fight attacks on the state’s Constitution — which has been heralded as a liberal document — and supports a right to privacy, which rolls over into supporting abortion rights.

Still, Ronning said she views the narrative that Dems can’t win the east as false. She thinks it’s important to look at history, which she said shows the eastern and central parts of Montana can and have been important in electing Democrats like U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and former U.S. Sen. Max Baucus — even if that wasn’t the case in 2020.

This year, Ronning said she’s traveled all over her district since January. The major issues she’s focused on, and that voters have talked with her about, span from those kitchen table issues to helping small businesses and Montana farmers and ranchers stay afloat.

“I put myself out there and talk to all people, regardless of political party,” Ronning said.

No magic, just hard work

After the 2020 election, Tester was the lone statewide elected Democrat left standing. He won re-election in 2018 and that term ends in 2025.

One of the only farmers in the U.S. Senate, he hails from Big Sandy, a small town in Chouteau County.

At the national level, Tester said Montana’s challenges as a rural state are different from the problems facing urban areas. Sometimes, he said, national Democrats say things that don’t resonate with voters in Montana. Tester said that’s why he tries to put state over party when he represents Montanans.

“I’m not elected to the U.S. Senate to represent Connecticut,” Tester said. “I’m here to represent Montana and the United States.”

A factor omnipresent in Montana elections is the rural vote. Around 44% of Montanans live in rural areas, according to a Montana Census 2020 newsletter. That amounts to around 470,000 people.

Tester pointed to his work in D.C., which has recently focused on veterans’ health care and de-consolidating the meat packing industry, as issues Democrats in Montana can claim and have found bipartisan support. 

“You can absolutely sell that in Montana,” Tester said.

In the meantime, he said, Republicans in D.C. have been working to take away women’s health care, and recently briefly blocked passage of the PACT Act, which aims to help veterans affected by burn pits.

His advice to Democrats running in Montana is simple: Don’t be afraid to go everywhere, work hard and work smart, and talk to people.

“People will vote for the person over the party in Montana,” Tester said, adding that personally, he seldom votes a “straight ticket.”

Tester, though, said politics ebb and flow, and the COVID-19 pandemic certainly presented challenges to Democrats in 2020. But he thinks that’s an outlier, and one Dems can overcome.

“There’s no magic to winning campaigns other than hard work,” Tester said.

Looking ahead

Hogan, the Dems’ executive director, said the party’s board membership includes people from rural areas, like Miles City and Lewistown.

“They make sure the party represents rural issues,” Hogan said.

The state Democratic Party recently established a new central committee in Powell County, a rural area in western Montana with a population of around 7,000 people.

In an effort to reach rural voters this year, Hogan said Montana Democrats are running radio ads in rural areas.

“There’s a lot of windshield time in rural communities,” Hogan said. “Data shows radio ads in those communities are helpful.”

The ads talk about what Democrats and their candidates — like Tester — have done to help rural communities.

Tester said if Democrats can show differences between themselves and their opponents, work hard and are willing to stand up for what’s right, it can be a winning combination — especially in Montana, where he said people value hard work.

And Hogan has a strategy for handling commentary that the party might struggle come November.

“That’s just noise,” Hogan said. “I try not to listen to that. We’re going to knock doors, raise money and energize voters. We’ve got a plan and we’re executing it.”