‘Moderate’ COVID-19 transmission risk holds for sixth week

Editor’s note: The Greenfield Recorder has been providing regular updates on the risk level of COVID-19 transmission as wastewater testing results are received.

Although the percent positivity continues to rise at roughly 6.26%, COVID-19 risk remains “moderate” in the four communities involved in the Contact Tracing Collaborative, which consists of Greenfield, Deerfield, Montague and Sunderland.

Hospitalizations from COVID-19 are down, with a daily average of 3.4 compared to 5.1 the week before, according to the Contact Tracing Collaborative. Cluster infections (of three or more people at one site), meanwhile, increased from two to five. And while virus concentration decreased in some communities, Greenfield saw a slight increase over the previous week, according to data from Biobot Analytics.

As a result, the municipalities remain in the yellow zone with a “moderate” risk of COVID-19 transmission for the sixth week in a row. Masking is encouraged.

At a recent Greenfield Board of Health meeting, Public Health Nurse Megan Tudryn also noted that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are “slowing down” compared to the beginning of November, when hospitals and primary care offices in the Pioneer Valley were handling an unprecedented spike in cases.

In combination with wastewater testing — people with an active COVID-19 infection excrete the virus in their stool, and samples from wastewater treatment plants can be analyzed to estimate community virus levels — the four municipalities factor in hospitalization numbers, positivity rates and case numbers to determine risk levels. Health officials also continue to talk with nursing homes, businesses and schools to track cluster infections.

The following three zones, defined by the Contact Tracing Collaborative, are used to gauge risk levels of COVID-19 transmission in the four communities. For the risk level in the area to change, at least two measures need to apply.

Red zone: High COVID-19 risk

Masking recommended.

■Cluster infections (of three or more people at one site): five or more.

■Percent positive tests out of total tests performed: greater than 10%.

■Hospitalizations: five or more.

■Increase in case trend.

■Increase in wastewater trend.

Yellow zone: Moderate COVID-19 risk

Masking encouraged.

■One to four cluster infections.

■Stable positive testing.

■Fewer than five hospitalizations.

■Stable case incidence.

■Stable wastewater.

Green zone: Low to minimal COVID-19 risk

Masking optional.

■No cluster infections.

■Decrease in positive tests.

■Decrease in hospitalizations.

■Decrease in case incidence.

■Decreased virus copies in wastewater.