The Perfect Enemy | Election 2022: Can anyone beat Alabama Gov Kay Ivey? - AL.com
March 21, 2024

Election 2022: Can anyone beat Alabama Gov Kay Ivey? – AL.com

Election 2022: Can anyone beat Alabama Gov Kay Ivey?  AL.com

When Gov. Kay Ivey launched her bid for reelection almost a year ago, she said the defining qualities of Alabamians are “faith, resilience, and a good old fashioned bucket load of common sense.”

The governor touted record low unemployment, record large education budgets, and new roads funded by a gas tax increase she championed. She contrasted what has happened in Alabama on her watch with politics in the nation’s capital.

“We all know Washington is a mess, and the truth is, that may never change,” Ivey said.

Since then, eight Republican challengers have emerged to try to derail Ivey’s bid for a new term. The governor has mostly stuck with the tone she set at the start of the campaign, running on her record and distinguishing her policies from what she describes as nonsense from Washington.

Whether the folksy, 77-year-old politician is up to the task of confronting Alabama’s problems in education, healthcare, prisons, and other areas depends on who you ask.

There is agreement that Ivey has kept the governor’s office generally scandal-free during five years on the job and that she is the favorite in the 2022 race.

“I think the reason she’s the frontrunner is that in most people’s opinion she’s done a pretty good job,” said Dick Brewbaker, a Montgomery car dealer who chaired the education committee in the Alabama Senate. “Given the political realities in Alabama, I think she handled the COVID thing about as well as it could be handled. She tried to keep people safe but also tried not to overstep the proper bounds of government.

“But most of all, this being Alabama, she’s governed for five years without scandal. And that’s not all that common in Alabama. People think she’s honest and even when they disagree with her think she’s running an honest administration. And I think for most people that’s probably enough.”

Gerald Johnson, political science professor emeritus at Auburn University and former longtime director of the polling and research arm of the Alabama Education Association, agrees that Ivey has not embarrassed the state, but said he’s disappointed Ivey hasn’t done more to tackle some of Alabama’s persistent problems. Johnson has known Ivey since they worked together in the first Gov. Fob James administration.

“I can’t think of a single initiative of any importance that she’s really undertaken,” Johnson said. “If you list Alabama’s standing on every issue, we’re either first or last depending on how the scale runs. And I don’t know that a single one of those scales have changed in her four years in office.”

Ivey’s challengers for the Republican nomination include former Trump administration ambassador Lindy Blanchard and Greenville businessman Tim James, who have spent almost $13 million combined on campaigns attacking the governor’s record. The race has tightened in the last six weeks, according to the most recent independent poll, although the survey showed Ivey still held a substantial lead. The primary is May 24.

The question is whether the governor can exceed the 50-percent threshold to win the nomination without a runoff, which would happen on June 21.

Jess Brown, retired political science professor at Athens State University, said Ivey entered the campaign with strong political health and has not squandered it.

“Anytime you have an incumbent seeking reelection to a high profile office, the election really becomes a referendum on that individual,” Brown said. “The other candidates, not saying their campaigns don’t matter, because obviously they do. But basically from the standpoint of the typical voter it becomes a referendum on the performance of that incumbent. And this is true of Kay Ivey.

“As I see it, Governor Ivey has had some political victories and she’s made no big political mistakes.”

Ivey, born and raised in Camden in rural Wilcox County, became governor in April 2017, moving up from lieutenant governor when Robert Bentley resigned. In 2018, Ivey won the Republican nomination without a runoff and won the general election by a wide margin.

Ivey is the second woman among Alabama’s 54 governors and the first elected solely on her own merits. Voters elected Gov. Lurleen Wallace as a stand-in for her husband George Wallace in 1966 because governors could not serve consecutive terms at that time.

Kay Ivey announces gas tax proposal

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey announces her Rebuild Alabama infrastructure plan, which included a 10-cent increase in the gasoline tax, in Maplesville on Feb. 27, 2019. (Mike Cason/mcason@al.com)

Gas tax increase

In 2019, the governor spearheaded a plan to raise Alabama’s gasoline and diesel tax by 10 cents a gallon over three years, with estimated revenue of $300 million a year pledged to road and bridge construction and improvements to the port of Mobile. The Rebuild Alabama Act was the first gasoline tax increase in the state since 1992.

Ivey’s Republican opponents have attacked her for the increase, which comes with an inflation index that could add up to a penny to the rate every two years. They called on her to suspend the tax as gas prices soared above $4 per gallon this year.

“If Gov. Ivey can’t see the need for suspending the gas tax, then she’s either lost her willingness to stand up for the people of Alabama, or her office has been overwhelmed by special interests who benefit from the higher taxes and bloated public budgets,” James said in a Tweet on March 30.

Ivey has blamed President Biden for the high gas prices and has not indicated she would consider suspending the tax.

Alabama’s state gasoline tax of 28 cents a gallon ranks in the middle of the pack among states. The national average on Jan. 1 was 26.16 cents, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

The governor says the Rebuild Alabama Act has allowed the state to tackle road projects talked about for decades, like the widening of the U.S. 43 route from Mobile to Tuscaloosa, called the West Alabama Corridor.

‘Safer at home’ orders

Alabama’s first case of the coronavirus was confirmed on March 13, 2020. Ivey declared a state of emergency and schools closed. Ivey, in conjunction with State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris, issued a series of “Stay at Home” and “Safer at Home” orders to try to slow the spread of the virus, which has killed more than 19,000 people in Alabama.

Ivey has caught criticism from her campaign opponents for some of those decisions and has admitted some mistakes, including an order early in the pandemic that closed some retailers and service businesses and allowed others deemed “essential” to stay open. Her orders at one point prohibited church gatherings larger than 10 people unless they were outdoor, drive-in worship services.

“You shut that guy down and shut the Presbyterian church down and you let the boys out at Walmart stay open,” James said. “Never seen that before. It’s insane.”

Johnson, although critical of what he said was Ivey’s lack of major initiatives, praised the governor’s decision-making for the pandemic.

“I think she’s done some rather courageous things, particularly in the area of the COVID pandemic,” Johnson said. “She issued the mask mandate and extended that and didn’t take the position that a lot of other governors were. So I give her a lot of credit for that.”

Ivey issued the statewide mask mandate in July 2020 and kept it in place until April 2021.

Ivey got her first COVID-19 shot in December 2020, soon after the vaccines became available, and continuously urged Alabamians to get vaccinated. ”We’re going to whip this thing,” the governor said at the time.

As Alabama lagged behind most other states in vaccination rates, Ivey was repeatedly asked what she could to raise the numbers. In July 2021, with hospitalizations rising, Ivey expressed her frustration about people’s reluctance to take the free vaccine.

“Folks are supposed to have common sense,” she said. “It’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks, not the regular folks. It’s the unvaccinated folks that are letting us down….I’ve done all I know how to do. I can encourage you to do something, but I can’t make you take care of yourself.”

The Blanchard campaign highlighted Ivey’s comments about the unvaccinated as part of a campaign ad, noting that Ivey’s statements won praise from President Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci, a favorite target of the political right. In the ad, the Blanchard campaign called Ivey a “tax-hiking, Fauci-loving, never Trump liberal.”

The “never Trump” referred to the fact that Ivey did not appear with former President Trump at his rally in Cullman in August 2021. The governor did meet Trump at the airport when he arrived.

Brown, like Johnson and Brewbaker, praised Ivey’s handling of the COVID restrictions.

“With regard to the pandemic, she balanced public health interests with politicization of that issue very well,” Brown said.

Abortion, gambling, prisons

In 2019, Ivey signed the nation’s toughest anti-abortion law, banning all abortions in Alabama except to protect the mother from a serious health risk. A federal judge blocked the law before it took effect, but it will come into play if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

In 2020, Ivey weighed into Alabama’s decades-old disputes over whether to expand legal gambling. She appointed a study commission that concluded the state could benefit from a comprehensive plan to regulate expanded gambling. Ivey supported a proposed constitutional amendment to allow voters to decide whether to have a lottery, casinos, sports betting, and a state gambling commission. It fell short in the Legislature in 2021.

After a similar plan died without much fanfare this year, Ivey called it her biggest disappointment of the legislative session. Her opponents seized on that and criticized Ivey for misplaced priorities.

“Gov. Kay Ivey has shown yet again that she’s tone-deaf to the serious problems facing our state,” Blanchard said in a statement reported by 1819 News. “What our state needs is leadership that will acknowledge our difficult problems and set out to solve them.”

Ivey said Alabama voters should have their say on the gambling issue.

“To me, this issue is simple – the people of Alabama should vote on casino gaming and the lottery. I trust Alabamians with these decisions,” the governor said.

The governor inherited a crisis in Alabama’s prison system stemming from years of neglect. Based on the federal government’s view, the situation has not improved on her watch. In December 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice, saying Alabama has dragged its feet on fixing the problems, filed a lawsuit claiming the violent prison conditions violate the constitutional rights of the incarcerated men.

The main response from the governor, working with the Republican-led Legislature, has been approval of a plan to build two 4,000-bed prisons. Funding for the includes $400 million in federal dollars from a COVID-19 relief bill passed by Congress, the American Rescue Plan Act. Completion of the prisons is expected in about three years.

Education problems

Ivey’s opponents say she has failed to address Alabama’s last-place ranking among states on the National Assessment of Educational Progress in math and the low ranking in reading. Alabama has ranked poorly on the tests for years, but the rankings for 2019 were worse than two years before.

James said Ivey has not been bold enough in challenging the education establishment.

“If the governor is just getting along with those structures, I guarantee either the taxpayer or the children and public are getting the bad end of the stick,” said James, who is calling for a no-strings-attached school choice program that he said would probably require a constitutional amendment.

Brewbaker, the former education committee chair in the state Senate, said Alabama governors are limited in how much they can do to improve education.

“The biggest problem we’ve got for education in Alabama is that nobody is on the hook for schools,” Brewbaker said. “The governor doesn’t govern education. Neither does the Legislature. Neither does the state board.

“The states that do the best job with education are the ones where the governor appoints the school board. And that way, every four years when the governor is running for reelection, if the schools are bad people blame the governor.”

Ivey supported a proposed constitutional amendment approved by the Legislature that would have changed the elected school board to one appointed by the governor. Voters overwhelmingly rejected it.

“She’s done about as well as Bob Riley or any of the other governors,” Brewbaker said. “Sadly, all the governor can really do is clap and cheer. And I think she’s tried to show some leadership.”

Johnson said he’s disappointed that Ivey signed a bill to eliminate the requirement for a permit to carry a handgun concealed or in a vehicle. That helped win Ivey the endorsement of the National Rifle Association but was opposed by many in law enforcement, who said the permit requirement was an important tool for public safety and to take guns away from criminals.

“I think that’s indefensible,” Johnson said.

Proponents of the legislation, including the former police chief who sponsored it, said the permit requirement infringed on the Second Amendment. The NRA said 21 states had similar laws.

“Nowhere in our constitution does it say you can keep and bear arms as long as you pay for a permit,” Ivey said.

Snubs President Biden

Johnson said Donald Trump’s popularity in Alabama is bound to be a factor in campaign strategy for a Republican candidate.

But Johnson thinks Ivey went too far when she declined to greet President Biden on his visit to the Lockheed Martin plant in Pike County earlier this month. The plant makes Javelin missiles that Ukraine is using in defense against the invasion by Russia.

“The campaign that she’s running is so pandering to the far right Trump world that it has diminished her standing as governor in my opinion,” Johnson said. “Specifically, her refusal to meet with Biden. It was beneath her and the office of governor.”

Campaign rival James said the governor should have met with the president out of respect for the office and to directly tell the president her concerns about his policies.

Campaign ads

Ivey has made Biden the main target in her campaign ads. Johnson said it’s nothing new for Alabama politicians to try to make their campaigns about national politics.

“But I think the governor’s personalizing it against the president has just not served her, nor the country, nor the state, nor the president well,” Johnson said. “She may need to be reminded that she’s not running against Joe Biden.”

In one ad, Ivey tries to show her dislike for Biden’s policies in a polite, southern sort of way.

“Growing up, my Mom and Dad told us, if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all,” the governor says, sitting at her desk. “Well, here’s what I have to say about Joe Biden.”

Ivey looks down, drums her fingers, and after a few seconds of silence says, “Poor Joe. Bless his heart.”

Brown, the retired political science professor from Athens State, says the governor’s campaign ads are effective.

“This is literally a governor talking directly to her constituents,” Brown said. “She talks in her ads. She appears in her ads. It’s not videos and photos and a voice overlay. And even in her attack ads there is either a veneer of humor or a veneer of state pride.”

Another Ivey ad takes aim at Biden’s policies on the southern border.

“If Joe Biden keeps shipping illegal immigrants into our states, we’re all going to have to learn Spanish,” the governor says. “My message to Biden: ‘No way Jose.’”

In an interview on MSNBC, Congresswoman Maxine Waters of California called the ad shameful and stupid.

“This is plain racist ignorance in your face,” Waters said.

Ivey fired back.

“There’s nothing racist with telling the truth about the disaster Joe Biden is causing with illegals invading our country,” the governor said. “I’m not going to be lectured by a liberal Congresswoman from California. We’ll handle our business in Alabama.”

Brown said of Ivey’s ad style, “It’s kind of a down home, homespun, we do things right here in Alabama. It is a manifestation of state pride in a very subtle but effective way.”

Skips candidate forums

At a candidate forum in Hoover in April, Blanchard said she had appeared in more than 20 similar events but that Ivey has not participated in any. Blanchard said she believes Ivey does not want to answer questions about her record.

“She doesn’t have an answer for working six years and not being able to do better with the education system,” Blanchard said.

Brown said it bothers him that Ivey avoids forums with her opponents. But he said the press has not pushed her aggressively enough on that issue and does not think it will hurt her with voters. Ivey refused to debate her Republican opponents and Democratic rival Walt Maddox four years ago and won easily.

“Apparently you can do that in Alabama and get away with it,” Brown said. “The voters will not punish you for not getting on a debate stage and the press will not punish you for not getting on a debate stage.”

A survey by the polling firm Cygnal indicates the race could be headed for a runoff. The poll of 600 likely Republican voters, taken May 6-7, showed Ivey at 40%, James at 17.9%, and Blanchard at 14.6%.

Brown believes Ivey remains in solid position to win. Even if there is a runoff, there’s no indication it would be competitive, Brown said.

“Her ‘favorable’ rating is very high,” Brown said. “Most incumbent governors would sell a body part for ratings at this level.”

Brewbaker, despite citing Ivey’s strength as a candidate, said it won’t be easy to win without a runoff considering there are eight opponents, including several with well funded campaigns. Blanchard, whose campaign is mostly self-funded, has spent about $8.8 million, according to reports filed with the Secretary of State. James has spent about $4 million. Ivey has spent about $7.3 million.

“When you’ve got several opponents all spending millions of dollars, that’s a tall order to get 50 percent plus one on the first ballot no matter who you are,” Brewbaker said.

For AL.com stories on the other eight Republican candidates for governor:

Lindy Blanchard

Lew Burdette

Stacy Lee George 

Tim James

Ronald Trent Jones

Dean Odle

Dave Thomas

Dean Young