COVID-19 cases continue to decline in Lincoln

Despite a significant decline in COVID-19 cases in Lancaster County, the county’s COVID-19 risk dial will remain in the mid-yellow range.

The risk dial moved to mid-yellow last week after being in elevated-yellow for several weeks.

Even though COVID-19 cases in the county declined 40% last week, from 280 to 200, their lowest level since late April, other indicators were mixed.

The seven-day average of hospitalizations rose from 31 to 34 and the number of virus particles detected in wastewater also rose.

It’s widely accepted that many COVID-19 cases are not being reported, either because people are using home tests or not testing at all.

However, the percentage of official tests that are registering positive continues to decline. Last week, it was 11.7%, which was down from 13.3% the previous week and is the lowest weekly reading in Lancaster County since May.

The numbers in Lancaster County mirror those in Nebraska as a whole. Last week, according to the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention, the state had 1,224 new COVID-19 cases, down 200 from the previous week.

Hospitalizations are also trending down, with the average daily total of 125 in Nebraska down 23% from the week before.

One area where local numbers diverge from statewide numbers is deaths. Nebraska recorded 35 last week, while there were none in Lancaster County. In fact, the county had only three COVID-19 deaths in September, which was fewer than in either July or August.

The vast majority of people who die from COVID-19 are either unvaccinated or not up to date on their vaccines, and experts say getting vaccinated and taking precautions would eliminate nearly all deaths.

“If we had everyone fully vaccinated and were taking precautions (like indoor masking) to reduce spread in high-risk environments, we would not be seeing very many deaths at all,” said Dr. James Lawler, co-executive director of the University of Nebraska Medical Center’s Global Center for Health Security.

Vaccines have proven highly effective at reducing the risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19, often turning the infection into little more than a mild cold. The latest data from the CDC shows those who aren’t vaccinated are more than 10 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who have stayed current on vaccinations.

But vaccination rates were never strong, and they’ve only lagged further in the past year as additional boosters have been recommended.

While 76% of Nebraska adults ultimately got their original vaccination series, fewer than half have received even one booster shot. Among the age 65-and-over population, while 94% received initial vaccinations, only 74% received a booster and only 34% got the recommended first two boosters.

Those numbers are slightly better in Lancaster County.

And county residents have been slow to get the new bivalent booster that is available to specifically target the omicron variant that has sparked most recent cases.

There was a small increase in the number of COVID-19 vaccinations in Lancaster County after the new booster became available, but numbers have since leveled off to below 300 doses per week.

The local Health Department was hosting vaccine clinics at Pinnacle Bank Arena on Tuesday and again Wednesday.

Lawler said a general pandemic fatigue among the public has no doubt contributed to the failure to sustain both vaccination efforts and masking in crowded indoor settings.

“Everyone wants it to be over and wants to believe we’re out of it, and that whatever vaccinations they have gotten are enough,” Lawler said.

The decline in cases over the past couple of months has some projecting that this fall and winter may be different than the past two years, when cases surged after the weather turned cold and people gathered inside.

But Lawler is not among them. He noted that cases are already starting to climb in the cooler climes of northern Europe.

“I’ve heard those victory declarations many times now,” he said. “I think the odds that we avoid that are very small.”

The Omaha World-Herald contributed to this story.