North Carolina candidates pivot toward middle as general election approaches
Raleigh, N.C. — Wiley Nickel is standing in front of a bounce house denouncing political extremism.
On one end of the bouncy castle are kids jumping while wearing “Make America Great Again” shirts, a reference to former President Donald Trump’s campaign slogan. On the other end are children wearing shirts with the names of Democratic U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, two of the party’s most liberal Democrats.
“This is my dad, Wiley Nickel,” Adeline, the young daughter of the aspiring congressman, says in the campaign ad, looking into the camera. “He says Congress is just like this bounce house. It just doesn’t work if people are too far on the left or too far on the right.”
Nickel, a Democratic state senator angling to represent the state’s 13th Congressional District, chimes in: “Adeline is right, and that’s why I’ll stand up to the extremes in both parties to get things done.”
The ad is one of the latest illustrations of how political hopefuls on the left and right are pivoting away from the extreme ends of their parties, hoping to score votes in a state where unaffiliated voters make up the largest share of the electorate.
Candidates have long been known to subtly temper their messaging as they transition from partisan primaries to the general election. But the transition appears to be more conspicuous this year in North Carolina. Several Democratic and Republican candidates have distanced themselves from party leaders such as Trump and President Joe Biden, who have carried low approval ratings. The candidates have also moderated or even obscured their messaging on divisive issues such as abortion and immigration.
Nickel’s message of bipartisanship in what is expected to be one of the nation’s most competitive congressional races comes despite his reputation as one of the most liberal members of North Carolina’s legislature.
Nickel’s record includes votes against major bills that received sizable bipartisan support, such as last year’s state budget and a spending plan at the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic that included stimulus checks of $335 to parents.
Meanwhile, Republican political newcomer Bo Hines—Nickel’s opponent—is creating separation from some of his conservative allies.
Ahead of the May 17 primary, Hines proudly touted the endorsements of Trump and outgoing U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn on the homepage of his campaign website. He further welcomed the support of other controversial Republicans, including Florida U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz and Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Hines has since removed Trump’s name and image from the campaign homepage and scrubbed endorsements from the website altogether. Hines also deleted the “Life and Family” issues section of the website where he shared his views “that life begins at conception and that we must protect the rights of the unborn” and that he believes in “traditional marriage.”
“Nothing on that issue is going to change for voters in our state, at least in this election,” Hines said in an interview, noting that Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper can still veto bills put forward by Republican state lawmakers. “We’re focused on the issues that we can actually have an impact for them on, and things that we can address in the next Congress that we’re there to represent them for. [Abortion] is a states’ rights issue now and it’s not something I’m going to deal with in the federal Congress.”
Distancing from Biden, Trump
In the state’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, a similar move to the middle is playing out.
When Democrat Cheri Beasley was running to retain her seat as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2020, she appeared as a special guest at a NC Women for Biden kickoff event. She also praised President Joe Biden’s decision to name then-U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. “A Biden-Harris Administration will bring much-needed change, and I look forward to their leadership,” she wrote on Twitter.
Now a U.S. Senate candidate, Beasley has distanced herself from the Biden administration, declining to attend recent visits from Harris and expressing little appetite for the president—whose approval ratings have been below 50% for more than a year—to campaign with her.
At a Monday event in Durham, Beasley told reporters she’d welcome Biden coming to hear from North Carolina residents, but she wouldn’t commit to joining him in the leadup to the election. She said she’d want to have a conversation with Biden’s team before the president visited.
“I certainly welcome the president to come and to hear from folks about our challenges but also our successes in this state,” Beasley said. “I’m glad for him to be here and certainly would love to have that conversation with his team if he’s on the way.”
In explaining Beasley’s absence Thursday from a Harris event in Durham, campaign spokesperson Kelci Hobson told WRAL: “While the vice president is in North Carolina for an official White House visit, Cheri is focused on her campaign to give North Carolinians a senator in Washington who will work for them.” Hobson said Beasley had “other engagements” while Harris was visiting but didn’t provide specifics on Beasley’s whereabouts when asked.
Beasley’s Republican opponent in the Senate race, U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, has largely remained consistent in his approach, continuing his efforts to link Beasley to Biden.
In a campaign ad last week, Budd welcomed the possibility of a political rally headlined by Beasley and Biden. Speaking over video of an empty stage with a banner that reads, “Cheri Beasley Welcomes President Biden,” Budd says, “This rally will never happen. Joe Biden won’t come here.”
In the ad and on campaign stops, Budd highlights how he would serve as a check on Democratic power if he were elected. Even so, he has made some efforts to adjust his approach.
Budd mentioned Trump’s endorsement at seemingly every opportunity he could while on the campaign trail during the primary. But since securing his party’s nomination, he’s created some distance by talking about Trump less often and steering clear of calls made by some in his party to defund the FBI in light of the bureau’s seizure of classified documents from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.
‘Hyper-scripted appearances’
While it’s not unusual for candidates to employ different message strategies between a primary and general election campaign, it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to break through the larger national political dynamics at play heading into the November election.
“Our politics has become so nationalized in its effect that it’s hard to escape Trump, Gaatz, Marjorie Taylor Greene or Biden, Harris, AOC [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and] Bernie Sanders,” said Michael Bitzer, a Catawba College political scientist. “It’s just kind of built into our political DNA at this point. What candidates want to do is show their political independence.”
Until July 23, the homepage of Budd’s campaign website touted the Trump endorsement with an image of Trump and Budd standing next to one another with their thumbs up, archived pages show.
Trump’s endorsement photo was subsequently placed on a carousel of images that begin with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a boisterous Republican who endorsed Budd at an April political rally held by Trump.
The carousel then moves to former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee before reaching Trump. After Trump are photos expressing support for Budd from the National Border Patrol Council and Dairy Farmers of America.
For Trump’s image to be seen, a viewer would have to wait about 20 seconds. A standalone endorsement photo of Trump and Budd remains at the top of the endorsements section of Budd’s website.
Jonathan Felts, Budd’s senior adviser, said the shift reflects the campaign’s desire to appeal to a broader general election audience and include a wider array of endorsements.
“Donald Trump remains the most popular member of the Republican Party on the planet we call Earth,” Felts said. “Mark Robinson remains the most popular Republican in the state of North Carolina. So that’s why they’re both on there. Nikki Haley is a prominent female officeholder in a neighboring state who’s also very popular with major donors here in North Carolina and Marsha Blackburn’s very popular in the western part of North Carolina.”
Political onlookers see candidates’ shift toward a more centered ideological lane as a natural progression designed to expand their support base. They also view it as a calculated effort by campaigns to keep their candidates disciplined.
“The main thing we have to go on with these candidates are hyper-scripted appearances and a party label,” said Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist. “I don’t think any voter has a good sense of how Ted Budd or Cheri Beasley would respond under pressure or who they really are.”
Budd and Beasley declined interview requests, though they did take questions from reporters at public events last week.
Budd, Beasley seek differentiation
In the meantime, both Senate candidates are seeking to portray the other as too radical. Beasley has campaigned on a more centrist platform, routinely citing areas she thinks she could work with Republicans.
“I’m the only candidate in this race who will be an independent voice for North Carolina in the Senate and will work across the aisle to lower costs, expand access to affordable healthcare, and invest in job training,” Beasley said in a statement.
She added: “Budd is far out of step with what North Carolinians want and has chosen to play politics with our lives at every opportunity.”
Beasley cites Budd’s votes against a bipartisan infrastructure bill, a measure capping insulin costs at $35 per month and a Covid-19 spending bill that included law enforcement funding, as areas of concern.
“When Congress had a chance to do something, politicians like Ted Budd voted against it,” Beasley says in an ad on capping insulin costs.
Budd has defended himself against the critiques, noting he has wide support from law enforcement groups, is fiscally conservative and supports a more limited role for the federal government on regulating businesses.
Budd has focused more of his election messaging on holding Democrats accountable than working with them if he were elected.
At an event in Lexington on Wednesday alongside Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, Budd offered a very different response than Tillis when asked what immigration policies he’d work to get passed under a Biden presidency.
Tillis said he’d be open to legislation that offers permanent legal status to people who have entered the United States through the controversial Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which many Republicans have opposed, if it had other provisions for border security and asylum reform. Budd, however, emphasized the value of congressional hearings that keep the Biden administration in check.
After Wednesday’s event, Tillis told WRAL News that he’d encourage Republicans across the country to focus their messaging on issues related to the economy and the military. He also said he feels confident about Budd’s prospects.
“You’ve got extremes at either end of the spectrum that do not necessarily represent the values that the majority of people are going to [consider when they] vote, and that’s why I feel good that we’re going to win,” Tillis said.
Hines, Nickel pivot to the middle
There’s perhaps no other race in North Carolina in which two candidates are more clearly adjusting their messaging than the 13th Congressional District.
The toss-up district includes the southern portion of Wake County, all of Johnston County and parts of Harnett and Wayne counties. Collectively, the area leans ever so slightly Republican but could go blue with strong Democratic turnout or a disillusioned GOP base.
The makeup of the district could be fueling Hines and Nickel to adopt different approaches than they had in their contested primaries, with the candidates trying to portray one another as ideologically extreme and ill-equipped to represent voters.
In the primary, Nickel mentioned former President Barack Obama on Twitter at least 30 times, often highlighting his role as a staff member in Obama’s White House. But Nickel has mentioned the former president sparingly since the start of the general election campaign.
The new approach could be seen as an effort to stave off losses in the reddest parts of the district, where residents disapprove of the former president. Hines is pouncing on that notion, trying to connect Wiley’s work in the Obama administration to Biden, who has been less popular overall than Obama.
“He’s trying to distance himself from an administration that the American people are very frustrated with, and obviously Joe Biden’s a part of that former administration,” Hines said.
Nickel is now touting different endorsements. On Thursday, he unveiled the endorsement of former Republican state Supreme Court Associate Justice Bob Orr, who had also been involved in the drawing of the congressional map that formed the new 13th District and is now a registered unaffiliated voter.
Asked what he’d do if he’s elected to a U.S. House controlled by Republicans, Nickel said he’d work to ensure Seymour Johnson Air Force has the funding it needs to expand.
“Most people that I’ve been talking to on the campaign trail, they’re not in the far-left and they’re not in the far-right,” Nickel said. “They’re in the center and they want someone who’s going to represent everybody. That means Democrats, Republicans, independents. And I’ve got a record of doing that.”
Hines said he’d seek to get more money for infrastructure projects narrowly tailored to improving roads, bridges and highways.
Hines questions Nickel’s record, noting the state senator opposed a pair of measures last year that would have increased punishments for violent protesters and compelled local police departments to cooperate more with federal immigration enforcement officials.
“This plays into his radical nature of not enforcing laws, not protecting our communities and keeping our children and our families safe,” said Hines,a 27-year-old political newcomer who has never held elected office.
Nickel, who has spent almost four years representing constituents in the General Assembly, said he’s proud of his legislative record and believes Hines is unqualified.
The Democrat cited a March 24 WRAL News interview in which Hines said he wants the country to move further right ideologically and pursue a 10-year immigration ban on those seeking to enter the United States. Nickel said he’s concerned about Hines’ inexperience and fears the Republican could prop up Trump in future elections.
“Trump had a choice between eight people running for Congress in this district and he picked the 26-year-old who’s never had a job,” Nickel said. “Why would he do that? Because he knows that Bo Hines will do anything that he tells him to do and we can’t have that in Washington.”
Hines said he worked in his father’s licensing apparel company for two years, during which he spent months in southeast Asia helping negotiate manufacturing deals and learning to speak Indonesian.
He also noted that, unlike Nickel, he lives in the congressional district they’re both seeking to represent. Hines moved out of his Winston-Salem condo and into a rental home in Fuquay-Varina in April, prompting criticism from Nickel that Hines is the true geographic outsider.
Asked about the support he’s gotten from controversial Republicans, Hines said he’d welcome a campaign visit with Trump but distanced himself from Cawthorn, a fellow 27-year-old Republican who lost his primary after a series of personal and political missteps.
“My background is much different than Madison Cawthorn’s,” Hines said. “I think our similarities really end at some of the values that we both believe in and our age.”
