Democrats face political headwinds but Pennsylvania may be different – Republican & Herald

But if any state defies expectations, Pennsylvania may be the one.

Democrats are counting on it, despite these factors:

• Inflation stands at 40-year highs with booming gasoline and grocery prices taxing consumers’ patience daily. When voters perceive the economy doing poorly, incumbents and their party suffer. One Democrat sits in the White House, another governs Pennsylvania.

• Only a quarter of voters view the state as headed in the right direction; almost two-thirds think it’s on the wrong track.

• Democratic President Joe Biden’s composite job approval rating stands at 40.7%, about a percentage point worse than President Donald Trump at the same stage of his presidency, according to the poll-tracking website fivethirtyeight. In Pennsylvania, Biden is at 33% job approval, 2 points worse than Trump. In the last mid-term election midway through Trump’s term, 2018, Republicans got clobbered.

All this could breed overconfidence in Republicans, but it shouldn’t.

“If Republicans think this is going to be a slam dunk, it’s not,” said former state attorney general Ernie Preate Jr., a Republican and veteran observer of state politics. “This is going to be a very, very competitive election, and Republicans better prepare for it.”

Democrats definitely have the matchup they wanted in the governor’s race — state Attorney General Josh Shapiro versus Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano, D-33, Franklin. Mastriano is considered so far right and unelectable by establishment Republicans, they rallied behind former congressman Lou Barletta of Hazleton in the primary election’s final week.

“His brand of politics, when juxtaposed against someone like Josh Shapiro, is going to be tougher to sell to a general election audience,” said Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College. “He’ll have his pure supporters that are fervent and excited and work hard. Is it going to sell in the Philly ‘burbs? Is it going to sell with swing voters? I don’t know.”

In the U.S. Senate race, Republicans have the matchup they wanted, whether Mehmet Oz or David McCormick wins after a recount, said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican political consultant.

“I think Pennsylvania Republicans realize that they’re getting a serious, mature, adult candidate, a strong conservative who can put together a winning campaign and then serve with honor in the Senate,” Nicholas said. “We think that lieutenant governor shorts and hoodies is well out of the mainstream of Pennsylvania.”

With his dressed-down wardrobe, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has developed a nationwide brand that appeals to Democrats. That appeal also allowed him to raise a lot of money and dominate his primary election opponent, U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb.

Lamb, a moderate Democrat, argued he had the best chance to beat the Republican nominee, a point Nicholas concedes.

Former talk-show host Oz and former hedge fund manager McCormick ripped each other so much, they left Democrats holding a fall campaign blueprint and Republicans less unified than Democrats.

“They’re far more united than the Republicans are, and they didn’t have a brutal primary battle,” longtime state political analyst G. Terry Madonna said. “But you’ve been through this before, where you had brutal primary battles, and the party that had it (the battle) went on to win.”

In both races, each side will try to paint the other as either far-left, far-right or just plain crazy.

Mastriano must broaden his base, a fact he acknowledged in a post-election interview with Steve Bannon, Trump’s one-time strategist. Certainly the most vocal elected state legislator supporting the claims that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, Mastriano also favors banning abortions without exceptions and ending mail-in voting. He also opposes all COVID-19 masking and vaccination requirements and wants to forbid people born as men to play women’s sports.

Shapiro starts with a broader base, partly because he’s run statewide and won twice, including winning Trump- and Republican-leaning Luzerne County in 2020.

“Josh will be like, ‘I’m going to be normal,’ ” Democratic consultant Dan Fee said.

Mastriano will portray Shapiro as more like Wolf and far-left to boot on a variety of issues like LGBTQ rights and abortion.

In the Senate race, Fetterman starts with the far-left label. The eventual Republican nominee will paint him as a socialist, a trust-fund baby who lives on his parents’ wealth and someone soft on crime and willing to ban fracking eventually. Fetterman and Democratic groups will likely question Oz’s or McCormick’s residency. They will portray Oz as a fake who routinely shifted positions on matters like LGBTQ rights and abortion. They’ve already portrayed McCormick as a “China hack.”

The race will likely break spending records because Democrats want to keep the Senate and Republicans want to win it back.

The candidates and outside groups could spend $400 million to $500 million on the race, Fee said.