Kelly has proved to be a fundraising juggernaut in his quest to hold on to the Arizona Senate seat he won in a 2020 special election. Still, the electoral dynamics of Arizona, which Biden carried by a hair, place the former astronaut on the top five of the latest list. He had $23.3 million in cash on hand at the close of the first quarter, after raising another $11.4 million.
None of the potential Republican challengers have been able to bring in that kind of money, but in an environment more favorable to the GOP than 2020, the race is a Toss-up. It’s also a long way off from the state’s Aug. 2 primary.
Hassan very narrowly flipped this seat six years ago and benefits from a field of lesser-known Republicans facing off in a September primary. She finished the first quarter with $7.6 million after outraising the entire Republican field combined, which includes state Senate President Chuck Morse, former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith and retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc and has since attracted more candidates. But her own upside-down favorability and Biden’s low approval ratings in the Granite State aren’t likely to help Hassan, who has tried to distance herself from the administration on issues such as immigration and gas prices.
In spite of his national profile, Democrats think Rubio hasn’t managed to win the hearts of Florida’s voters, and that could make him vulnerable to Democratic Rep. Val B. Demings, who faces only nominal opposition in the Aug. 23 primary. Her background as Orlando’s first Black female police chief and blockbuster fundraising could help defuse some of the GOP’s crime-related attacks and motivate the state’s low-propensity Black voters. But Rubio will be helped by the star power of Gov. Ron DeSantis at the top of the ticket in a state that has veered to the right in recent years.
Colorado has become reliably Democratic in statewide elections in recent cycles. But the large number of unaffiliated voters could be up for grabs in a cycle that favors Republicans, especially considering the state’s inflation rates, which have outpaced the national average. Republicans plan to attack Bennet for his allegiance to Biden — he voted with the president 98.7 percent of time, according to CQ Vote Watch. They think Bennet could be especially vulnerable to moderate construction company owner Joe O’Dea, who has already put $630,000 of his own money into the race. But O’Dea could get pulled to the right in his primary against state Rep. Ron Hanks, who questions the 2020 election.